Individual stroke play returns on the PGA Tour this week with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course in Palm Harbor, Florida. Below, we look at the 2021 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
This tournament was canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Paul Casey returns in 2021 looking for a record third consecutive win at Copperhead.
He’ll be challenged by a strong field fronted by Golfweek/Sagarin’s third and fourth-ranked golfers (as of April 19) in Dustin Johnson and Viktor Hovland, respectively.
The Valspar Championship follows last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans partner event. Australians Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman won in a playoff over the South African duo of Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel.
Paul Casey (+2200)
Casey won by a single stroke in both 2018 and 2019 at 10- and 8-under par, respectively. The two-time defending champ’s odds are inflated by the top-heavy strength of this field. He’s just sixth by the odds.
The Englishman has averaged 1.34 strokes gained on the field per round over his 20 career rounds played at Copperhead. He led the field with 2.81 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round in 2019.
Casey won the European Tour’s Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January and has four top-10 finishes in eight PGA Tour events this year. His irons and ball-striking are in great form as he goes for the three-peat.
Gary Woodland (+8000)
Woodland has played 28 rounds at Copperhead with an average of 0.83 strokes gained per round. He won here in 2011 and tied for eighth in 2014 but missed the cut in each of his last two appearances at the Valspar Championship.
The former major winner has been showing much better form of late after dealing with injuries for the better part of the last year. He tied for sixth in a quality field at the Valero Texas Open and tied for 40th at the Masters after missing the cut in three of his previous four events.
He remains a strong value after taking the last two weeks off.
Cameron Champ (+10000)
Champ and playing partner Tony Finau tied for 17th at last week’s Zurich Classic. The lower-ranked half of the duo tied for 26th at the Masters and for 34th at the Valero Texas Open in his previous two solo events.
Golfweek’s 149th-ranked golfer makes his debut at Copperhead. He’s seemingly a good fit for the course with 0.81 SG: Off-the-Tee through 32 measured rounds on the 2020-21 PGA Tour season.
He’s losing 1.01 strokes per round with the putter, but his stroke has been better of late and won’t be tested as much at this venue.
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